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American Idol 8: Which Idol Will Fall Third?

by Sting7 & David Bloomberg -- 03/17/2009
The axe has fallen twice on the American Idol top 13, leaving just 11 Idols battling it out for the crown. So, in the first week of this crucial round of competition, what have we learned? How will the judges’ save affect things? Which Idol will be the next to go? Could it be Megan Joy Corkrey (right)? Sting7 and David Bloomberg predict which Idol will be the third to fall!

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For those new to the column, Sting7's comments are in black, David Bloomberg's in red.

Last week, American Idol told us of a new, game-changing rule! The judges will be allowed to save a contestant! The save can only be used one time and one time only! I think it's an interesting idea, but it does add fuel for the conspiracy theorists who think the show is rigged anyway. Then again, nothing is going to change their minds, so why worry about them? Conceivably, a strong contestant could stumble and get a second chance. It seems fair to me.

Eh, I’m not a big fan. I may have more to say in an article on the topic, if I get around to writing it, but I think in some ways it’s unfair to the other contestants. For example, what if the judges save Adam this week and then Danny falls next week? I think they’re fixing something that ain’t broke. And really, look at two of the examples they used: Chris Daughtry, when he wouldn’t even have been eligible under these rules. Jennifer Hudson, when I don’t think Simon would have chosen to save her anyway. I say pshaw.

Also last week, Jasmine Murray promised “I'll Be There” and Jorge Nuñez swore he “Never Can Say Goodbye.” Both of them were wrong. They are with us no more. Megan Joy Corkrey and Anoop Desai appear to have dodged the bullet this time. Can they recover?

Allow me to gloat for just a moment here, before we move on. Last week, I predicted Jasmine would leave us (not knowing it would be a double-header, of course). And poof, she’s gone! I also thought Megan would join her in the bottom three. OK, so I agreed with Sting that Kris would be with both of them as well, but hey, the main bulk of the prediction was right.

You can read David's take on what went wrong with Jasmine and Jorge by clicking on those links. I believe they committed the unpardonable sin of being uninspiring. Neither of them were bad, nor great. Just... okay. The worst thing you can do on Idol is deliver a performance that generates audience indifference. Indifference means, “I don't care enough to vote for that.” Deadly. Even if you are really bad, your fan base may rally for you. When you are smack in the middle, your fan base feels satisfied, but you haven't swayed the uncommitted. You need the casual voters at this stage!

Taking a look at the remaining 11, I still believe certain Idols are bulletproof at this point. Scott, Lil, Danny, and Adam, take a seat. Agreed.

Matt Giraud and Allison Iraheta aren't at that level (yes, I did back down on Allison a bit), but they are establishing big fan bases. I'm feeling very confident that they will make the top ten. Agreed again – as far as the top ten.

Alexis Grace left her guts on the stage after belting through “Dirty Diana” and got a warm-ish reception from the judges. I still get the feeling Alexis thinks her voice is bigger than it actually is. (Simon said it last week, but I said it first.) If she keeps reaching for the big songs, she's eventually going to get swallowed by them. Will she follow Simon's advice and aim a little lower?

I still think Alexis will be safe. However, what worries me is that she is likely to sing in the early-goings of the show, which could be deadly if she doesn’t give a great, memorable performance.

Anoop Desai took all his strut and swagger to the stage only to be beaten by “Beat It.” I had to agree with Paula (and David) that “Beat It” shouldn't be sung by anyone else but Michael Jackson. Props to Anoop for stepping up to the challenge, but it brought his momentum to a halt. In fact, the uninitiated are talking like he's this season's Sanjaya! We all know he's better than that, but what has this done to his confidence?

Hopefully, Anoop learned a lesson. But I also hope he doesn’t dial it back too much and eliminate all the fun from his performances. It will be a delicate balancing act. But I also feel if his fans kept him around after that, they’ll keep him around a bit longer. However, he could end up in the bottom three.

Michael Sarver delivered vocally much better than I thought he would! The funny thing is that we all sort of assumed he was the country guy, but the judges gave him praise for his “R&B style” and that was “the Michael we liked in Hollywood.” So much for the country fan base. We've seen folks coast on a back story for awhile, but coasting on an occupation rarely works (unless you are Josh Gracin). Michael opened some eyes last week, but did he do enough?

Good question. I’m not sure. Last week, I was very strongly against Sting’s prediction of him being in the bottom three (and I was right). This time, I’m not as sure. He did do well, and another strong performance could keep him safe. But we’re running out of spots for the safe people!

Kris Allen with a plaid shirt and a guitar did a great job of establishing his own identity among the top 13. There are a lot of people who wait until this point of American Idol to actually start watching. Kris made a good first impression, though I don't see any comparison to Jason Mraz like Randy Jackson did. My only quarrel with Kris is that his voice is just not as strong as Danny's or Adam's or Matt Giraud's. It wasn't even as strong as Jorge's. That means charm is going to have to carry some of the weight for Kris to survive.

It also means he is going to need to hit a homerun every time for at least the next few – and I don’t think he can do it.

Megan Joy Corkrey, or Megan Joy Quirky as some folks are calling her, is in a similar position to Kris. She has a lovely voice, but she's not really a belter like Lil, Alexis, and Allison. Sometimes, the “simmering” singers like Megan aren't given proper credit because her vocal appeal isn't as overt. Of course, a song like “Rockin' Robin” doesn't help her cause in that regard. What kept her from going home, I think, was the dazzling smile and the endearing kookiness she possesses. I personally believe Megan is going to win folks over as the weeks go by, but it is a slow process. While she is waiting to for the public to embrace her, she must provide other reasons to vote for her. So far, so good.

I don’t think she’ll have enough time to win people over. “Rockin’ Robin” was an idiotic song choice and she is lucky to still be on the show. One more screw-up and she’s gone.

Time for the predictions! Last week, I think I struck out with my bottom three, and this week my picks will look very similar. I think Anoop will rebound and his fan base will rally around him after the close call, so I am keeping him out of the bottom three. I think the bottom three will be Kris, Megan, and Michael. I predict Michael Sarver will be the next to go. Your thoughts, David?

As I noted earlier, I think Anoop may return to the bottom three again this week, though he won’t be sent packing. That dishonor will go to Megan. But will it be Kris or Michael joining them in the bottom three? I’m going to say Kris, which means once again I didn’t even put Sting’s pick to leave into the bottom three. We’ll see who’s right this week!

If you haven’t already, be sure to check out these other recent articles on Foxes On Idol:

Sting7 has been a respected published writer for many years, as a music editor, entertainment critic, columnist, and interviewer. He loves cold lemonade, ice cream, and kittens! You can email Stinger at stingseven@yahoo.com. David Bloomberg is the Editor of Foxes On Idol, and can be reached at RNO@pobox.com.


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