Idol Chartwatch, October 6: Kristy Lee Takes a Tumble, Chartwatch Makes Some Predictions, and More
by Donna Reynolds
-- 10/06/2008
As chart watchers wait to see where Jennifer Hudson and Kellie Pickler end up end next week, one newly hatched Idol saw her debut plummet in its second week on the charts. In addition, Donna has some predictions for the future of David Cook. Read on for more.
Season 7’s Kristy Lee Cook’s debut, Why Wait, sold less than 4,000 copies in its second week, resulting in a drop of 104 spots – that’s right, 104 – to #153 on the Billboard 200. The album went from #8 to #27 on Top Country Albums. This does not bode well for Ms. Cook or her fledgling career.
In Kristy Lee’s defense, the album hasn’t gotten very much support from Arista, and from what I understand, was recorded in four days. They rushed it out, hoping to capitalize on her fifteen minutes, which it seems, really might equate to shame, not fame, making the title of her single even more compelling. Haste makes waste, my grandmother always used to say. Still, a little promotion might have helped, and she can’t help it that her album was released in the midst of the worst financial crisis in our lifetime.
On a lighter note, based on early sales trends, Hits Daily Double is predicting Jennifer Hudson to be on track to open at somewhere between 215-225,000 its first week, which, barring any unforeseen circumstances, will put the album in second place on the Billboard 200 after Dirty South’s Paper Trail.
Jennifer’s album is an eclectic mix of genres, ranging from R&B to pop to gospel, with a smattering of hip-hop tossed into the mix. Although the wide range of styles yields a somewhat disjointed overall effect, the individual tracks are pretty solid, and her vocals are stellar. My favorites are “If It Isn't Love,” “Giving Myself,” and “Spotlight.” And, although I’m not crazy about Ludacris’ contribution to “Pocketbook,” I really love her sass and attitude in the song. It’s a solid debut, and while I think it could have been better, as we have seen with Idols past, it could have been much, much worse!
Hits Daily Double’s prediction for Kellie Pickler isn’t quite as rosy. The album is trending towards 40,000 in sales, which will probably preclude a top ten debut. Considering the failure of Kristy Lee’s album, as well as Phil Stacy’s anemic sales, one has to wonder whether the proverbial bloom is off the Idol country rose. Kellie’s got staying power, though, and certainly the label has plenty invested in her, and won’t want the album to tank. Look for her to continue to tour and appear on TV in promotions for this album, which should result in steady sales, similar to Small Town Girl.
Idols on the Album Charts
All of the Idols saw a drop in sales last week, and a resulting drop on the charts. The most dramatic was the fall of Jordin Sparks from #71 to #114. Interesting, considering her latest single, “One Step At A Time,” is getting heavy airplay. I’m blaming the economy!
Daughtry dropped 13 places, from #52 to #65, and fell from #17 to #23 on Top Rock Albums. It did gain one spot on Top Hard Rock Albums, though, moving up from #11 to #10. Daughtry et al has an excuse, however. The album, or albums if you consider the deluxe version, has been on the charts for 88 weeks and has sold 4.2 million copies. There does come a point at which the market is saturated, but Daughtry is still selling.
Carrie Underwood’s Carnival Ride took the lightest hit this week, moving down nine spots from #45 to #54 – respectable, considering it’s been out for nearly a year. Carnival Ride remains in the top ten of the Top Country Albums Chart, ending up at #8.
Chris Sligh’s Running Back to You had a nice little bounce, moving up nine spots to #41 on Top Christian Albums and #49 on Top Christian and Gospel Albums.
Rounding out the Idol albums on this week’s charts Bucky Covington dropped just one spot to #53 on Top Country Albums.
Idol Singles
David Cook’s new single “Light On” is impacting in a big way on Top 40 radio. In addition, it was in the top ten on iTunes the first day it was available and number one at Amazon at least some of the days shortly after it was released. Over the next month, David will be out promoting the single and his debut album, which drops November 18. Look for “Light On” to hit the digital charts next week, possibly even cracking the Hot 100.
Based on a combination of factors, David Cook could be the most successful Idol winner since Carrie Underwood. His coronation single, “The Time of My Life,” continues to maintain a presence on all the major charts 19 weeks after its release. In recent years, this has been unprecedented, and the success of “Time of My Life” and the buzz surrounding the new single certainly indicates interest in the Season 7 winner has not waned.
In addition, if sales figures from this summer’s concert tour are any indication of Cook’s draw, he’s going to do just fine. The numbers show a dramatic increase in the number of attendees at this year’s tour over last year’s. According to Ken Barnes, the average percentage of seats filled was 85.4 percent, up 17 percent over Season 6’s rather paltry 68.4 percent.
Season 7’s numbers are a long way from the 96.1 percent average that Season 5 maintained, but this still bodes well for both Davids (Archuleta and Cook). Interest in the concert appears to have a direct correlation to the contestants’ post-Idol success. All one has to do is look at the sales numbers for the Season 5 alum to make that connection. Will David Cook hit Daughtry-esque numbers? It’s unlikely, due the state of the economy and a slowdown in CD sales overall, but both he and David Archuleta should debut at #1 on the Billboard 200 and go platinum.
Here’s how all of the Idol-related singles did this week:
“Just Stand Up” (Carrie Underwood and others): Hot R&B/Hip-Hop (91), Hot Adult Contemporary (23)
David Archuleta’s “Crush” (David Archuleta): Hot 100 (20), Hot 100 Airplay (49), Pop 100 (17), Pop 100 Airplay (25), Hot Adult Contemporary Tracks (17), Mainstream Top 40 (14), Hot Adult Top 40 (25), Hot Digital Tracks (10), Hot Digital Songs (12)
“Spotlight” (Jennifer Hudson): Hot 100 (36), Hot 100 Airplay (17), Hot R&B/Hip-Hop Songs (3), Hot R&B/Hip-Hop Airplay (3), Mainstream R&B/Hip-Hop (6), Hot Adult R&B Airplay (2), Hot Dance Club Play (22)
“The Time of My Life” (David Cook): Hot 100 (49), Hot 100 Airplay (32), Pop 100 (56), Pop 100 Airplay (43), Hot Digital Songs (68), Hot Adult Contemporary Tracks (1), Mainstream Top 40 (36), Hot Adult Top 40 Tracks (12)
“One Step At A Time” (Jordin Sparks): Hot 100 (21), Hot 100 Airplay (14), Pop 100 Airplay (4), Mainstream Top 40 (3), Hot Adult Top 40 Tracks (18), Hot Digital Tracks (24), Hot Digital Songs (27)
“No Air” (Jordin Sparks with Chris Brown): Hot Adult Contemporary Tracks (13)
“What About Now” (Daughtry): Hot 100 (54), Hot 100 Airplay (41), Pop 100 (30), Pop 100 Airplay (24), Hot Adult Contemporary (28), Mainstream Top 40 (21), Hot Adult Top 40 Tracks (5), Hot Digital Songs (75)
Donna Reynolds is a freelance writer based in Syracuse, New York. While entertainment sustains her emotionally, she earns her daily bread by writing and editing web copy. Check out her new website at www.idolthoughts.net. Donna loves mail, so shoot her an email at foxydonna@earthlink.net.
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