American Idol 7: Which Idol Will Fall Ninth – in Super-Shocker Week?

Now that Brooke White has been relegated to the sidelines, there are just four Idols remaining. But before too many congratulatory high-fives get delivered, if these Idols know their history (and all but Jason say they know the show very well – more on that later) this is the week that should have all of them feeling uncomfortable. But is it also a week that has myself (writing in plain text) and David (in boldface) as uncomfortable in making predictions? We’ll get to those in a moment – first, a little history.

Tamyra Gray was riding a wave of nailed performances and more than a couple bona fide Idol moments to the final four where it looked like she had finally snuck past Justin Guarini and was challenging that infinitely charming Texan, Kelly Clarkson. Her place in the finals was all but expected. Then, after performing “New Attitude” and “Feel the Fire” and receiving common praise from the judges… it was over. She was standing next to Nikki McKibbon, and to the surprise of everyone, she was eliminated.

LaToya London was one of those rare performers who managed to deliver a knock-out performance in her round of eight (when they still had those) and nailed “All By Myself,” easily besting some contestants who had a huge amount of airtime and were building fan bases. LaToya had not been shown prior to this performance. Possessing polish and finesse, it was looking like the classy LaToya would be facing the brassy Fantasia in the finale. But on the night after she sang “Don’t Rain On My Parade” (the night after Simon told Jasmine Trias in no uncertain terms that Jasmine would be leaving the show) it did indeed rain and LaToya was out.

Chris Daughtry came out the gate marching to his own drummer. Idol had seen rock-edged performers before, but Chris possessed a versatility in his vocals and performance, and undeniable star quality. Chris managed to stand out in what could be the most diverse top 12 ever. During Elvis Presley Week, Chris started off strong with “Suspicious Minds,” but was decidedly less successful with “A Little Less Conversation” – a song that will always be associated to previous contestant Jon Peter Lewis. A rare misstep, but nothing that should have spelled his elimination. Yet that is exactly what happened.

What that tells us is that when favorites fall to mediocrity on this week, they could suffer the ultimate penalty.

David Cook would be the biggest surprise of all. He is in rarified air these days. He can do no wrong, it seems. If he were eliminated, it would send shock waves across the country, maybe the world. And despite the history of final four week, I just can’t see it being David Cook’s funeral video we see at the end of Wednesday night’s show.

I agree. I mean, anything is possible, of course, but that would definitely be a the shocker to end all shockers.

David Archuleta is looking like a prime candidate for elimination. He started off extremely strong, looking like the contestant to beat. But as the weeks played out, David has allowed himself to be outperformed by David Cook and out-buzzed by Jason Castro. And, while he has an extremely loyal fan base (which includes Natasha Bedingfield, apparently), this is the time of the season where casual voters and the voters of eliminated contestants take over. As rumors persist that David’s father continues to be a pain to show staff and a constant influence in every aspect of David’s Idol campaign, all while David’s x-factor seems to be fading, David could very well be the next to go.

I’ve been meaning to write a full article on this very topic. It doesn’t look likely to happen now. Just in case, I’ll be brief, but my main point is that I agree with Sting that David A.’s elimination is possible and would not be as much a shocker as David C. leaving. But is it likely? I don’t think so.

Syesha Mercado has nothing to feel bad about. She has appeared in the bottom rung more than any other contestant this year, but she continues to survive. She is now in that strange place where she is ticking the boxes on the things people criticized about her, but she is just not… David Cook. Or David Archuleta. Or Jason Castro. She may be the best technical singer left, and she is peaking right now… but it may be too late. The Idol Hitwoman may be out of bullets. The cat could be out of lives. Could she be the next to go? Absolutely.

Last week, I predicted that she would indeed go (who could have foreseen such a horrible first performance by Brooke?!). She was in the bottom two, despite the fact that Jason sucked. That’s not a good sign for her. I don’t know that I can agree that she is the best technical singer left, but I also don’t think it matters. Syesha will be in the bottom two.