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American Idol 5: Which Idol Will Fall Eleventh – and Who Will Win It All?

by Sting7 and David Bloomberg -- 05/23/2006
It’s time for the finale, as a relatively controversy-free season of American Idol comes to an triumphant end! Elliott missed by a nose, meaning it’s Taylor vs. Katharine for the title of the fifth American Idol! Who will win? David Bloomberg and Sting7 make the call!

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Before we get to the finale and other things Idol, a final word about my boy Elliott Yamin. My feelings about Elliott’s elimination came as such a surprise – even to me. I am actually bummed. I’ve had contestants that I liked a lot, and saw bright futures for, leave earlier than I truly thought they should, and I shook it off. On with the show.

But, this year, I’m not recapping Idol, so that instant detachment isn’t there for me. This year, for the first time, I am a viewer. Sure, I prognosticate with David here, but those are generally thoughts I write and share with my friends and fellow Idol fans about what I think is going to happen next. I would say this stuff anyway.

So, why is it that Elliott’s elimination is bugging me so much?

There was no conspiracy involved here. In fact, Dial Idol nailed this one too. It said would be close (not as scary-close as the results turned out to be), but it did predict Elliott was next. The week before it predicted Chris Daughtry would fall. (Maybe it’s time to give some credit to that little site! Slowly, slowly, I am becoming a believer.)

It’s just that a kid like Elliott doesn’t seem to get a break. He had asthma as a kid, he’s 90% deaf in one ear, he’s undersized, was under-motivated, a guy who didn’t follow thru, by his own admission. Yet, he can sing like that. Elliott, to me, is what American Idol is all about. Take somebody who was doomed to be no one, and give them a chance. Elliott typified that.

Yet, I read things like “he didn’t have star potential.” Well, I daresay he already is a star. If he could have made it through this week, (especially after seeing his homecoming video! How could you not melt?) he could very well have won American Idol. His likeability factor went through the roof!

He has performance problems. I’d like to ask where? Sure, Taylor hops around on the stage and screeches for Soul Patrol, but that’s Taylor’s thing. The camera absolutely adores Katharine McPhee. She doesn’t have a bad angle. Why do those facts have to equal to a negative for Elliott who doesn’t necessarily have that kind of charisma, but a charisma of his own?

Even here on Foxes On Idol in David’s Why Elliott Lost, he ponders whether Elliott had a true fanbase because some e-mailers who are ticked off that Chris lost admitted they tossed some votes Elliott’s way – some began to vote more for Elliott than Chris, though in the end, they wanted Chris to win. That seems to suggest that Elliott didn’t have enough fans of his own. I totally disagree with that. Those vote-tossing people certainly don’t make a majority. I would gladly open my mailbox to show the scores of emails from people who were trumpeting for Elliott for reasons that had nothing to do with Chris Daughtry.

David butts in: Yes, I would indeed suggest that Elliott didn’t have enough fans of his own – that is, he has fans, but they were not all dedicated to the level of Katharine and, especially, Taylor. And yes, lots of people have been trumpeting Elliott (heck, I’ve been one of ‘em), but obviously not enough of them voted for two hours straight. Having a lot of fans is not the same as having enough in this situation.

So what happened? A new voting record, 50 million votes. That says that the casual fans were there in en masse. The problem with the casual fans is that they don’t know the history, they are not pre-disposed to vote for someone because they made up their mind weeks ago who they want to win. I don’t think that is a bad thing at all. It actually supports the notion that the best person will win, not just the most popular – and that’s what we truly want, isn’t it?

That Tuesday night, Taylor was rock solid. Katharine had, perhaps, the greatest performance of the season with “Somewhere Over the Rainbow.” Elliott was solid as well, but none of his three performances ignited the way Taylor and Katharine’s did. He was good, but not great. It was a bad night for that to happen. And to see the narrow margin in which he fell behind (presumably) Katharine – just 100,000 votes or so – it shows how strong a fan base he did have!

David adds: But, again, not strong enough.

Roll on, Elliott! There are plenty of people waiting for your album, and you will have one! I’m buying it!

David says: On that we can agree!

Now for the final two. Last week, David and I agreed that Katharine wouldn’t be able to turn it on to make it the finals. Color us wrong. If she can manage just two performances of that level, she will be the next American Idol. She has things to overcome, though. First, the judges are virtually pleading with her to rein it in. Katharine has a tendency to over-sing, they say. Considering the restraint she showed in “Rainbow,” and the result, maybe they are right!

David says: Yup, we were wrong about Katharine, but only because she turned it up a notch and gave a performance the likes of which we’d never seen from her previously. Hey, sometimes it’s tough predicting how things will go before they perform! But I don’t think any number of performances at that level will win it for Katharine. I’m not saying it’s impossible for her to win, I just don’t think performances will be the key. What will? You’ll have to wait a few paragraphs for that.

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