American Idol 5: Was Chris’ Loss the Shock of the Season?

OK, I admit it. Even I was lulled into a false sense of security. Yes, the guy who, every year, writes A ‘Shocking’ American Idol Prediction figured that this year we wouldn’t have one – until the final four results were aired.

What had I predicted in that article?

My prediction is that at some point during this season – possibly at multiple points – a “favorite” contestant will be voted off before a less-talented competitor. There will be a great deal of wailing and gnashing of teeth. The e-mail inboxes of those of us who write about American Idol will fill up with messages from people who are certain that it’s fixed and who will vow that they will never watch the show again. People will completely forget that this has happened in every season since the very first season aired. And I will have to write another article explaining all of this.

Similarly, as Donna Reynolds noted in her recap of Wednesday night’s episode, the message boards went ballistic as soon as the results were read. This is another indication of whether or not the results are shocking. Chris had many loyal fans, while Mandisa never engendered quite that kind of fanaticism.

It has to be noted that there are reasons we should not consider this result “shocking.” For one thing, many of us have repeatedly mentioned that this is the best final four ever on American Idol. I do not have a problem with any of them winning. There was not a Nikki, Josh, or Jasmine in the bunch.

But that doesn’t mean they were all equal in everybody’s eyes. It seemed that two tiers had developed. Chris and Taylor were in the top tier – many people expected them to be in the finale. Elliott and Katharine were in the bottom tier, with most people believing they would come in third and fourth. Heck, even many of Elliott’s fans were resigned to thinking he is the most talented but would not be rewarded on the show for it. Thus, while the talent level this year would speak to it not being a shock, viewer/fan expectation pushes us back in the other direction.

So I think it’s safe to say that, indeed, this was the “shocking” vote of the season. Of course, that also means it really wasn’t a shock. Indeed, when I saw Ryan Seacrest tell Chris that he was out, I didn’t jump up and down, screaming. Nor did my mouth drop open like Katharine’s. I just kind of shook my head and muttered to myself, “Well, here it is. I guess I’d better get started on my article.”

One reason I began writing articles about this kind of thing happening is due to the e-mails and message board postings. No matter who is eliminated in a result like this, they all say variations on the same thing: It’s a conspiracy. The producers wanted him gone. Simon wanted him gone. And indeed, I have already received messages like that.

But as I said last year in discussing Constantine’s non-shocking “shocking” elimination, “We can summarily dismiss the usual BS conspiracy theories.” The fact is that there is no reason the producers would have wanted Chris gone. Further, there is zero evidence to support such a claim - in fact, the available evidence contradicts it, as a website that tracks busy signals on the Idol phone lines did indeed place Chris at the bottom, right where he ended up. And finally, there is no need for cloak and dagger mysteries.

I’ve been saying it for a while now, so people should be used to it by now. “Shocking” results are to be expected. Yes, Chris has a lot of fans. But so do the rest of the final four. As I have already discussed in Why Chris Lost, Chris’ fan base was a narrower group than some of the others. And what’s more, some of the other Idols’ fans (especially Elliott’s) saw danger and rose to the occasion. Just as my pre-season article noted that one “cause of ‘shocking’ results is fans who think their favorites are safe,” the inverse can be true. And I also believe many of Chris’ fans believed him to have a fairly easy road into the finale.

This season, the “shocking” result held off all the way until the final four was moving to the top three. But it was lying in wait, and we let our guard down.

Chris was the victim of the “shocking” result. But we have to remember that, in the end, it really should not have been a surprise. It has happened before. It will happen again in future seasons. So let me end this article the same way I ended the one about Constantine last year, with a quote from the final paragraph of my pre-season article: “The fact of the matter is that ‘shocking’ results on Idol are not much of a shock at all.”

If you haven’t already, be sure to check out these other recent American Idol articles on Foxes On Idol and RealityNewsOnline:

David Bloomberg is the Editor of Foxes On Idol, and can be reached at RNO@pobox.com.

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