And the Winner Is…

There's inherent danger in doing what I'm about to do. There are irate fans on all sides I'll have to deal with (oh, that will be fun). There's the hate mail I'm going to receive, accusing me of everything from trying to sabotage an unbiased outcome of American Idol (which I'm not) to having some inside network information on vote totals (which I don't).

But I'll take these risks gladly, because what I have to say is obvious to anyone who can step back and look at American Idol with an objective eye. What I have to reveal is nothing less than the answer of who will win this season.

Run, don't walk, to your nearest bookie, and bet the 401(k) on Clay Aiken. This is a sure thing.

There are several reasons for this, but first a caveat: the above prediction only holds true if 1) the call-in votes are counted on the up-and-up, and 2) there are no shenanigans by either 19 Entertainment or Fox to change the outcome in any way.

Now, obviously, there's no way I can guarantee these two situations, but let's just assume for the sake of argument that everyone's going to play by the book. Clay wins. In a landslide.

Let's begin by looking at Clay's competition. First off, I'm dismissing Josh out of hand, because he will be gone by the end of this week. No, I'm not worried that Josh didn't make into the bottom two last time. He will this week, and that will be all of the Singing Marine we'll see until he shows up with the American Idol tour at a shopping mall near you.

Put it another way. If Josh makes it to the final two, there will be a mass suicide over at 19 Entertainment and Fox. Either that, or fairness will go out the window, and the outcome will be rigged in order to keep Josh off the final show. No one is playing games with a lucrative TV franchise that's rated the number one show in the country. And putting Josh against Clay/Ruben/Kim in the Grand Finale would be nothing less than a joke. So, Josh isn't even a question here.

As far as the other competition goes, I can't merely dismiss them, for the simple reason that Kim and Ruben both are very talented. Kim's fan base has obviously grown tremendously in the past few weeks, and Ruben has been hyped from the beginning as the champion of the season. In fact, as of this writing, Randy had already proclaimed Ruben the winner. Yes, both Kim and Ruben have followings, and probably will end up with relatively successful careers.

But as far as winning American Idol goes, none of this matters. And not only does this not matter, it's all a bunch of smoke and mirrors when trying to predict the winner, set up purposely to confuse and confound you.

Because it's not the amount of space devoted to the different contestants in magazines, or who celebrities say they like best when a microphone is shoved in their face that matters. To paraphrase James Carville, "it's the votes, stupid."

So, where do these elusive votes come from? From the casual viewer? Yeah, maybe a few, but how invested is the casual viewer in staying on the line for two hours straight?

But the die-hard fans? Ah, now you're talking. And no one has die-hard fans like Clay Aiken. We're talking mega, "Clay changed my life" kind of fans. We're talking about an age range from young teens to 50s and 60s (and maybe older.) We're talking both men and women. We're talking about a kind of devotion usually reserved for icons like Barbra Streisand or someone of her rarified status.

Don't believe me? Check the websites. Google for Clay Aiken and see what you get. And it's not just the number of fans and sites you should look at. It's the depth of emotion that people attach to him. This is no small thing. Make sure you've freed up several hours before you start this project, and bring the Kleenex. There are absolutely heart-wrenching tales out there of people with physical and emotional disabilities for whom Clay's music has been nothing short of a God-send.

And still, there's more. It even goes beyond both the number of fans and the depth of their attachments. These are pretty smart folks. Clay's fans realize they can multiply their efforts. We're talking about people who are actively recruiting their significant others, roommates, co-workers, nieces and nephews not only to listen to Clay, but more importantly, vote for Clay once the show is over.

Forget power dialing and computer programs. With Clay fans, it's not even that high-tech. It's merely a matter of getting as many landlines and cell phones together as possible and having everyone in the house use both hands to vote for Clay for two hours straight.

Ruben, for all his smoothness and popularity, does not inspire this kind of wacky behavior. Come on, 205 fans, admit it. Are you that crazed about Ruben? You like the guy, you dig his voice, you want him to sing at your wedding, but no way in hell are you gonna coerce your co-workers or classmates or parents or kids to dial Ruben's number for two hours straight, are you? I mean, you're a sane person, for goodness' sake. Same goes for Kim. This kind of behavior is solely a Clay Aiken phenomenon.

And why does Clay affect some people this way? That's a whole other column entirely. Better you should ask me how many stars in the sky. Really, I've no earthly clue. But I do know that it's his fans' intensity and devotion that's going to make Clay this season's American Idol.

Andrea Shuman writes for RealityNewsOnline and Foxes On Idol. She admits to being a Clay Aiken supporter herself, and uses the word "wacky" to describe his fans' behavior in only the most loving sense. Ahem. You may reach Andrea at ABostonGal@yahoo.com.

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